Given that many of Africa’s largest and most densely populated cities (Dar es Salaam, Lagos, Capetown, among others) are located on the coast, storm surges, inundation, erosion, and other forces of coastal restructuring present a significant risk to African populations and environments. For this reason, this week’s topics really interested me.
Many of west Africa’s coastal nations, including Senegal, the Gambia, Sierra Leone, among others, are low-altitude lagoonal areas predisposed to erosion, which puts them at risk of sea level rise and inundation related to extreme weather events. Since many cities are growing in these areas and trends suggest an increase in urbanization over the next 50 years, which will likely be met with more extreme weather events attributed to climate change. With increased risk of extreme weather events and growing population, west Africa’s cities are at risk of both significant loss of life and damage to structures and infrastructure. More frequent/severe weather events in coastal areas with growing cities could alter the morphology of coastlines and also cause enormous issues with sanitation which could compound damage to coastal environments.
Among the areas that may be most affected by climate change and associated storm surge, sea level rise, flooding, etc. is Egypt. Khafegy et al. (1992) estimate that for 1m sea level rise, inundation could claim around 2000 sq km of land in coastal areas of the lower Nile delta. Further, agricultural potential could be devastated by climate change-related flooding, erosion and other processes. By one estimate, flooding alone could result in loss of US$750 million, and tourism could take a hit of US$127 million/yr, as a result of erosion and morphological damage to coastal areas.
Similarly, Nigeria could face devastating consequences as a result of inundation and sea level rise. Awosika et al. (1992) suggests that inundation could occur along 70 percent of Nigeria’s coastline. Even with no sea level rise, current rates of erosion could cause the loss of more than 250 sq km of land by 2100 (IPCC). As mentioned prior, Nigeria has a growing urban population, and its largest and fastest growing city, Lagos, is in a lagoonal area situated on the Gulf of Guinea. This is a recipe for disaster, and degradation of coastal areas of Nigeria could result in the uprooting of millions of environmental refugees.
This blog post opened my eyes to the real, tangible risks and vulnerability of Africa’s major, and predominantly coastal, urban centers. I have reservations to urbanization as it is, considering it is unsustainable to have such a significant and growing number of people occupying small and resource-insecure spaces, but with the additional concern of climate change and its effects on coastal processes, my concerns grow. I will aim to learn more about the efforts of these countries and inter- and non-governmental organizations to mitigate these risks, but I am fearful that these concerns are largely unaddressed by these groups. As is often the case in Africa, rampant corrupt bureaucracy disallows significant action on risks related to population and environmental well-being. I hope that I will have the opportunity to advocate for issues of coastal degradation in my future travels in African coastal countries.
References:
http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/regional/index.php?idp=0
Awosika, L.F., G.T. French, R.T. Nicholls, and C.E. Ibe, 1992:
The impacts of sea level rise on the coastline of Nigeria [O’Callahan, J. (ed.)]. In: Global Climate Change and the Rising Challenge of the Sea. Proceedings of the IPCC Workshop at Margarita Island, Venezuela, 9-13 March 1992. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, MD, USA, 690 pp.
Khafagy, A.A., C.H. Hulsbergen, and G. Baarse, 1992:
Assessment of the vulnerability of Egypt to sea level rise. In: Global Climate Change and the Rising Challenge of the Sea [O’Callahan, J. (ed).]. Proceedings of the IPPCC Workshop, March 1992, Margarita Island, Venezuela. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, MD, USA.
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.